Calendar-year inflation forecasts from Federal Open Market Committee meeting participants typically start near 2% and then ...

We document key stylized facts about the time-series trends and cross-sectional distributions of AI pricing and study its ...

Although homeownership is commonly portrayed as a single household living in a detached residential structure, the landscape of homeownership in the United States offers a diverse array of ...

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is hosting its Annual Conference on Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy in San Francisco on Friday, February 21, 2025. The conference aims to bring together ...

I’m delighted, and it’s good to see everybody in the audience. Thank you for having me. Well, I think the jobs market data being revised and going back and forth is just a good lesson of why you can’t ...

The economy has significantly improved from just two years ago. Inflation has fallen substantially, and the labor market has returned to a more sustainable path. A soft landing is achievable, and the ...

CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services updates data on how much different types of goods and services contribute to changes in consumer price index (CPI) inflation. This tool is intended ...

Small businesses play an important role in the American economy, both as employers, and as drivers of economic activity in local communities. In recent years, many small business owners have had to ...

Standard asset pricing models reconcile high equity premia with smooth risk-free rates by inducing an inverse functional relationship between the mean and the variance of the stochastic discount ...

Communities and businesses play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. To inform our decision-making, the San Francisco Fed hosts discussions with the people we serve so we ...

As a community-engaged bank, the SF Fed seeks out real-time information on economic conditions by engaging with and learning from businesses, community organizations, and local leaders. These ...

Fifteen months of new data covering the period since May 2023 continue to track closely along the path of a fitted nonlinear Phillips curve that shows the empirical relationship between inflation and ...